Please join the new message board on Google Groups:
http://groups.google.com/group/bakken-shale-discussion
It's likely to be a learning experience for yours truly, so patience is the key. You will need to join the group to post a message, but not to read them.
It's apparent that this blog format isn't very handy for all the various topics people want to discuss.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Continental And Helis Going For The Sanish Sand
In their recent presentation materials, Continental Res. has an informative cartoon representation of a Basin-wide Bakken cross-section, which also indicates generalized areas where the 
Sanish Sand is expected to be encountered in the upper Three Forks Formation (think the excellent Petro-Hunt well in Charlson Field that has been mentioned here several times).
CLR recently mentioned that they were planning some Sanish exploration this year. In their materials, the company indicates that they will be testing the zone in their Rocket prospe
ct in west central Dunn Co., when I expected that it would occur further north in their McKenzie Co. holdings. Maybe the arrow is pointed to that area in an attempt to throw off schmucks like me. hmmm. Regardless, hopefully CLR will find that this zone has some great potential for additional reserves beyond those encountered in the mid-Bakken.
Meanwhile, Helis O&G has drilled two stacked lateral wells targeting the Upper Three Forks and the mid-Bakken, and is currently drilling a third in McKenzie Co. Information from the company's Linseth well indicate that they did not encounter the preferred "sand" in the upper TF formation and found only carbonates. Neither of the drilled wells appear to be a barnburner production-wise (so far), but it would appear a lot of kinks have to worked out with these more complicated completions.
Sanish Sand is expected to be encountered in the upper Three Forks Formation (think the excellent Petro-Hunt well in Charlson Field that has been mentioned here several times).
CLR recently mentioned that they were planning some Sanish exploration this year. In their materials, the company indicates that they will be testing the zone in their Rocket prospe
ct in west central Dunn Co., when I expected that it would occur further north in their McKenzie Co. holdings. Maybe the arrow is pointed to that area in an attempt to throw off schmucks like me. hmmm. Regardless, hopefully CLR will find that this zone has some great potential for additional reserves beyond those encountered in the mid-Bakken.Meanwhile, Helis O&G has drilled two stacked lateral wells targeting the Upper Three Forks and the mid-Bakken, and is currently drilling a third in McKenzie Co. Information from the company's Linseth well indicate that they did not encounter the preferred "sand" in the upper TF formation and found only carbonates. Neither of the drilled wells appear to be a barnburner production-wise (so far), but it would appear a lot of kinks have to worked out with these more complicated completions.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Austin 1-02H Production
The official completion info has been released on EOG's Austin discovery well in the "north" Parshall Field area. The IP was 781 bbls/day (mid Dec) and it has produced about 102K bbls for the period of Oct. to Jan.
The approved Parshall Field outline after incorporating the Austin 1-02H, and a now outdated projected decline curve for that well submitted last December.
The approved Parshall Field outline after incorporating the Austin 1-02H, and a now outdated projected decline curve for that well submitted last December.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Decline Rates II
A reader left an excellent comment that I couldn't have written better myself and which deserves better prominence:
I am not a reservoir engineer but can offer some comments based on observing Williston Basin production over the last 50 years.
Initial production is always a good indication of performance, but there are great variances. One well which IP'd for 162 barrels per day has produced 1,463,000 barrels so far; it's still producing. Another with an IP of 480 barrels per day has produced 2,356,000 barrels to date and continues to produce. I believe this is the granddaddy of all North Dakota oil wells...so far. (Both of these are vertical Madison wells producing from relatively thin pay zones, 164-85.) Another extreme is a Nesson Anticline well with an IP over 1,000 barrels per day that was plugged after only a few months (vertical Interlake).
More to the point, I believe you need 18 to 24 months of production to get a good feel for what a well is going to ultimately produce. Since only a few horizontal Middle Bakken and Three Forks wells have more than a year of productive history, it is difficult for me to draw any firm conclusions. It appears that if you average the first 2 to 3 months of "flush production", the typical well might be producing 50% of this average amount in 10 months to a year. After 15 to 18 months in appears production has leveled off at a rate of about 25-30% of the first 3 month average (with little regard to the IP rate). Hopefully the decline from this point forward will hold at about 10%-15% per year.
The obvious exception to the scenario is the Petro-Hunt USA 2D in the Charlson area. It's reported IP was 700 barrels per day. It's 16 month total production is 378,536 barrels and the most recent month production was 1000 barrels per day! This was its best month ever; it is "inclining" not declining(?).
Other cautions on every well: did they stay "in zone" while drilling; did the zone get damaged while drilling; did the direction of the lateral section optimize natural fracturing, did the frac job get into the intended zones, and on and on. We'll all be wiser in a few years as this data base grows and learning curve goes higher.
Anyway, regardless of Williston Basin history, the future looks extremely bright! The Bakken play has been nothing but fantastic. Also, we have to remember, this is a play brought on by technology: horizontal drilling and fracing. Both of these will only get better and we've just scratched the surface of the Middle-Bakken potential. Who knows where the Three Forks will take us.
**********
Continental is planning some upper Three Forks wells in the near term so by the end of the year we should have a little better idea of the potential of that zone.
I am not a reservoir engineer but can offer some comments based on observing Williston Basin production over the last 50 years.
Initial production is always a good indication of performance, but there are great variances. One well which IP'd for 162 barrels per day has produced 1,463,000 barrels so far; it's still producing. Another with an IP of 480 barrels per day has produced 2,356,000 barrels to date and continues to produce. I believe this is the granddaddy of all North Dakota oil wells...so far. (Both of these are vertical Madison wells producing from relatively thin pay zones, 164-85.) Another extreme is a Nesson Anticline well with an IP over 1,000 barrels per day that was plugged after only a few months (vertical Interlake).
More to the point, I believe you need 18 to 24 months of production to get a good feel for what a well is going to ultimately produce. Since only a few horizontal Middle Bakken and Three Forks wells have more than a year of productive history, it is difficult for me to draw any firm conclusions. It appears that if you average the first 2 to 3 months of "flush production", the typical well might be producing 50% of this average amount in 10 months to a year. After 15 to 18 months in appears production has leveled off at a rate of about 25-30% of the first 3 month average (with little regard to the IP rate). Hopefully the decline from this point forward will hold at about 10%-15% per year.
The obvious exception to the scenario is the Petro-Hunt USA 2D in the Charlson area. It's reported IP was 700 barrels per day. It's 16 month total production is 378,536 barrels and the most recent month production was 1000 barrels per day! This was its best month ever; it is "inclining" not declining(?).
Other cautions on every well: did they stay "in zone" while drilling; did the zone get damaged while drilling; did the direction of the lateral section optimize natural fracturing, did the frac job get into the intended zones, and on and on. We'll all be wiser in a few years as this data base grows and learning curve goes higher.
Anyway, regardless of Williston Basin history, the future looks extremely bright! The Bakken play has been nothing but fantastic. Also, we have to remember, this is a play brought on by technology: horizontal drilling and fracing. Both of these will only get better and we've just scratched the surface of the Middle-Bakken potential. Who knows where the Three Forks will take us.
**********
Continental is planning some upper Three Forks wells in the near term so by the end of the year we should have a little better idea of the potential of that zone.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
IP Decline Rates
Thanks to Larry for putting this together and who wrote:
The following is a spreadsheet showing the IP and the first production for the wells. I based first production on the well producing at least 25 day during the first month it produced. If, for example, the well only produced 20 days in the first month, I then combined the first and secon month production.
Unless I am missing something there is not much correlation between IP and the production in the ensuing month.
Update: Larry updated the IP decline chart to include cumulative production thru January 2008, which indicates that the data confirms the average production over a longer period is about 60% of what is produced in the first month.
The following is a spreadsheet showing the IP and the first production for the wells. I based first production on the well producing at least 25 day during the first month it produced. If, for example, the well only produced 20 days in the first month, I then combined the first and secon month production.
Unless I am missing something there is not much correlation between IP and the production in the ensuing month.
| IP vs. | ||||||
| 1st bbls | ||||||
| Well Name | IP Date | IP | BBLS | Days | BOPD | prod. |
| H. RICE 1-26H | 11/22/06 | 20 | 2092 | 40 | 52.3 | 261.5% |
| ENGET 4-11H | 7/14/06 | 46 | 974 | 26 | 37.5 | 81.4% |
| NELSON 14-33H | 8/23/07 | 53 | 1244 | 25 | 49.8 | 93.9% |
| LALIM D. #34-11H | 12/24/06 | 76 | 5478 | 47 | 116.6 | 153.4% |
| RICE 10B-2-1H | 2/20/07 | 193 | 7621 | 48 | 158.8 | 82.3% |
| NELSON FARMS 11-19H | 1/8/07 | 198 | 743 | 31 | 24.0 | 12.1% |
| JEAN NELSON 1-35H | 11/1/07 | 266 | 6133 | 35 | 175.2 | 65.9% |
| PARSHALL 1-36H | 6/6/06 | 463 | 9154 | 29 | 315.7 | 68.2% |
| GEVING 1-09H | 8/12/07 | 783 | 31332 | 50 | 626.6 | 80.0% |
| ZACHER 1-24H | 6/13/07 | 870 | 49822 | 49 | 1016.8 | 116.9% |
| PARSHALL 2-36H | 9/27/06 | 883 | 16960 | 31 | 547.1 | 62.0% |
| EHLERT 1-35H | 4/29/07 | 918 | 45079 | 33 | 1366.0 | 148.8% |
| C & B 1-31H | 5/15/07 | 922 | 43149 | 47 | 918.1 | 99.6% |
| FLORENCE 1-04H | 7/25/07 | 1015 | 35048 | 38 | 922.3 | 90.9% |
| PEERY STATE 11-25H | 5/13/07 | 1081 | 24985 | 44 | 567.8 | 52.5% |
| N&D 1-05H | 7/3/07 | 1285 | 33567 | 29 | 1157.5 | 90.1% |
| RALPH 1-32H | 9/2/07 | 1329 | 27815 | 30 | 927.2 | 69.8% |
| PATTEN 1-02H | 3/15/07 | 1487 | 14565 | 31 | 469.8 | 31.6% |
| WARBERG 1-25H | 1/19/07 | 1553 | 26102 | 41 | 636.6 | 41.0% |
| WENCO 1-30H | 9/23/07 | 1670 | 47696 | 39 | 1223.0 | 73.2% |
| HOFF 1-10H | 6/24/07 | 1675 | 45721 | 38 | 1203.2 | 71.8% |
| BARTELSON 1-3H | 11/17/06 | 1800 | 30195 | 45 | 671.0 | 37.3% |
| Brigham Hynek | 585 | 142.0 | 24.3% | |||
| Brigham Bakke | 380 | 310.0 | 81.6% | |||
| Brigham Bergstrom | 202 | 119.0 | 58.9% |
Update: Larry updated the IP decline chart to include cumulative production thru January 2008, which indicates that the data confirms the average production over a longer period is about 60% of what is produced in the first month.
| 1st bpod | |||||
| Cum | Cum | vs. | |||
| Well Name | IP | BBLS | Days | BOPD | cum bpod |
| PARSHALL 1-36H | 463 | 105933 | 579 | 183.0 | 58% |
| ENGET 4-11H | 46 | 13272 | 573 | 23.2 | 62% |
| LALIM D. #34-11H | 76 | 30554 | 487 | 62.7 | 54% |
| H. RICE 1-26H | 20 | 8243 | 461 | 17.9 | 34% |
| PARSHALL 2-36H | 883 | 132500 | 440 | 301.1 | 55% |
| BARTELSON 1-3H | 1800 | 174373 | 404 | 431.6 | 64% |
| RICE 10B-2-1H | 193 | 33217 | 349 | 95.2 | 60% |
| NELSON FARMS 11-19H | 198 | 41604 | 346 | 120.2 | 502% |
| WARBERG 1-25H | 1553 | 140613 | 331 | 424.8 | 67% |
| PATTEN 1-02H | 1487 | 144251 | 303 | 476.1 | 101% |
| PEERY STATE 11-25H | 1081 | 111261 | 289 | 385.0 | 68% |
| EHLERT 1-35H | 918 | 156502 | 250 | 626.0 | 46% |
| ZACHER 1-24H | 870 | 118415 | 217 | 545.7 | 54% |
| HOFF 1-10H | 1675 | 126544 | 216 | 585.9 | 49% |
| C & B 1-31H | 922 | 116437 | 210 | 554.5 | 60% |
| N&D 1-05H | 1285 | 108570 | 183 | 593.3 | 51% |
| RALPH 1-32H | 1329 | 91546 | 173 | 529.2 | 57% |
| FLORENCE 1-04H | 1015 | 88919 | 168 | 529.3 | 57% |
| NELSON 14-33H | 53 | 5895 | 163 | 36.2 | 73% |
| GEVING 1-09H | 783 | 71715 | 160 | 448.2 | 72% |
| JEAN NELSON 1-35H | 266 | 19043 | 127 | 149.9 | 86% |
| WENCO 1-30H | 1670 | 97724 | 123 | 794.5 | 65% |
Monday, March 3, 2008
February Scorecard For Mountrail Co.
Larry has provided his monthly update of activity in Mountrail County:
At month end there were 23 drilling rigs on location in Mountrail County. EOG 8 rigs; Hess 5 rigs; Whiting 4 rigs; Fidelity 2 rigs; Behm, Brigham, Hunt, Murex 1 rig each.
During February 17 wells were spudded. EOG 6; Hess 4; Whiting 3; Behm 1; Brigham 1; Hunt 1; and Murex 1.
During February NDIC issued 24 new permits to drill. EOG 4 permits in Wayzetta, Austin, and Burke Townships. Whiting 5 permits in Crane Creek, Van Hook, and Sikes Townships. Hess 7 permits in 154-94, Myrtle, Idaho, Clearwater, and Powers Lake Townships. Fidelity 5 permits in Brookbank, Cottonwood, and Powers Townships. Slawson 1 permit in Palermo; Murex 1 permit in Sikes; and Brigham 1 permit in Lostwood.
*********
"In the news" 2/13 post updated with article about record high oil prices in ND (thanks Roy).
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