Monday, February 4, 2008

January Scorecard For Mountrail Co.

Larry put some statistics together for last month:

At month's end there were 19 drilling rigs on location in Mountrail County: EOG 7 rigs; Hess 4 rigs; Whiting 3 rigs; Fidelity 2 rigs; Brigham, Hunt, Murex 1 rig each.

During January there were 12 wells spudded: EOG 6; Hess 2; Whiting 2; Fidelity 2

During January NDIC issued 32 new permits to drill: EOG 15 permits in Model, Parshall, Wayzetta, and Austin Townships. Newcomer Behm Energy 7 permits in Osloe and Spring Coulee Townships. Whiting 3 permits in Crane Creek Township. Hess 3 permits in Banner, Idaho, and Ross Townships. Hunt 1 permit in Oakland; Murex 1 permit in Sikes; Fidelity 1 permit in Brookbank; and Brigham 1 permit in Manitou.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Whiting Hits It Big, Sanish Field, Mountrail Co.

Thanks to the reader for finding this Whiting press release. A surprising gas volume in that Liffrig well at 1.7 mmcfd.

BLM Sale Results

Thanks to Larry for digging this up for Mountrail Co. More detailed info later when I have more time.

Parcel 97711 is a 50% interest in 160 acres in Plaza Township: $520/acre, 80 net acres.

Parcel 97712 is a 50% interest in 320 acres in Osloe Township: $520/acre, 160 net acres.

Parcel 97713 is a 50% interest in 156 acres in Kickapoo Township: $387/acre,78 net acres

Parcel 97714 is a 50% interest in 160 acres in Redmond Township: $1,200/acre, 80 net acres.

Parcel 97716 is a 100% interest in 120 acres in Sikes Township: $3,225/acre, 120 net acres.

Parcel 97717 is a 50% interest in 149 acres in Osborn Township: $1,610/ acre, 74.5 net acres

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Parshall Production And Maps

In December, Parshall Field produced about 156K bbls from 14 wells. Gas production for Nov. (Dec. is not in yet) was about 46 mmcfg. The highest gas production was in Aug. when 13 wells produced 70 mmcfg, which also had the highest oil production so far at 190K bbls.

David was kind enough to plot all the wells in the original Parshall Field area and the recent extended Austin area to the North so everyone could reference them.

Monday, January 28, 2008

It's The Fault's Fault

If you recall my discussion of the importance of faults in enhancing natural fracturing in the Murphy Creek area last May, it is theorized that faults serve as a conduit for fluids to migrate along the fault. Those fluids would then dissolve the salt deposits below the Bakken causing the overlying formations, including the Bakken to collapse, which obviously would greatly enhance the fractures.

I theorized (
along with probably untold others) that such a collapse area existed in the Murphy Creek area in west central Dunn Co. due to the presence of the Heart River Fault in the area (one of the few major faults in the Basin), and also because of the anomaly uncovered during the drilling of the Adobe Killdeer Federal wildcat well in 1981. That well almost blew out when it encountered what appeared to be a fracture in the lower Lodgepole.

This fracture system has apparently been confirmed by the first Marathon well to be drilled in the area, th
e Hecker 21-5H, sec. 5, 144N-96W in Dunn Co., which was drilled last year about a mile and a half west of the Adobe well. The Marathon well hit the same "fracture" in the lower Lodgepole at almost the same sub sea depth (6 ft. difference) as was found in the Adobe well. The company ran logs to see what was up with the huge increase in gas and oil shows, but they didn't show any comparable reservoir properties. It was then theorized that the shows were sourced from a "large fracture system below it." The Hecker well was completed for almost 400 bbls/day calculated as an average for seven days of production. Marathon has since drilled two other wells directly offsetting the Hecker well and has more planned.

Indications are that there may be some high volume producers in this area where the fracture system is more extensive or better developed. It's something worth watc
hing to see how it all pans out.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Nightline Tonight

Apparently there will be a ND oil-related topic on ABC's Nightline show tonight. Thanks to the reader who heard about it for passing along the info. ABC usually has an abbreviated version of the news stories they televise on their website if you miss it.

In other news (which most certainly won't be on Nightline ha.), today's Rocky Mountain Oil Journal is reporting that EOG has apparently plugged its McAlmond well about a half-dozen miles NE of the company's Austin wells in Mountrail Co.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Brigham Announces Three Discoveries, Mountrail Co.

Brigham announced three discoveries today, none of which appears to be a barnburner, but they certainly seem economically viable. In fact, they are more in line with an average well in Dunn Co.





Wednesday, January 2, 2008

NY Times Finds North Dakota

I guess it should be noted when the New York Times finds something of interest in the state, and particularly when it pertains to its oil patch.

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Marathon Buys PDC Acreage

Marathon has purchased from PDC about 72K undeveloped acres and most of the company's Bakken wells for almost $35 million effective 12/31. The transaction brings Marathon's net acreage up to 320K acres. Fox News

PDC and Marathon had a AMI in a large part of Bailey Field in Dunn Co., where each was developi
ng their interests in a checkerboard pattern, but PDC hadn't been active in the area since last summer. Marathon is going to need a few more rigs besides the six it currently operates to hold a lot of its proven acreage, where the leases mostly expire in two years or less.

Speaking of Marathon, here are a few pictures of their operations in Bailey Field near Killdeer in Dunn Co.









It also appears that Billings, MT based Nance Pet. has sold most or all of their interest in ND to St. Marys Land & Exploration.

Some Reader Input

David expended some effort in writing some comments to a recent post that deserve some better exposure. He wrote:

EOG seems pretty confident that they can recover 750,000 bbls of oil from each section drilled in the Parshall/Bakken field almost irrespective of the initial bopd figure. According to Mark Papa in one of his responses during an analyst presentation, the Bartelson 1 well, one of the first completed which initially produced 1800 bopd, produced an average of 600 bopd over an entire year, but was at a little over 400 bopd rate 1 year out. The wells seem to pop off initially at quite variable rates, ranging from about 700 bopd to 2000+ bopd, but once the initial pressure is off, they all seem to move fairly quickly into a rate of 500-600 bopd, and then the rate of decline is much less rapid after that.

I've been trying to determine what assumption about well life EOG is using for the 750,000 barrels recovery from each 640 acre spacing--as near as I can tell that assumes a well life of about 5 years, possibly 6. EOG is experimenting right now drilling a third well on a 1280 acre spacing from the opposite corner across the Bartelson and Patten sections 1 and 2 of 152-90. If you listened to their request in Bismarck, they aren't really expecting this strategy to increase recovery on the two sections relative to what they are getting from the two existing wells(they think that the oil from the new well simply cuts production from the two older wells on the 640 acre spacing) However, this is an experiment (EOG's words) and there is a possibility that this will become a normal method to increase recovery rates, and a third well running crosswise of the laterals on two of the current 640 acre spacings may turn out to be the norm in the Parshall and Austin fields (those two fields will eventually be one).

The EOG economics are pretty simple: a very average well producing 500 bopd for 6 months generates over a million $ of oil a month at current prices and pretty much covers all their direct drilling costs of 5+ million $. As a capital budgeting project, this number is nothing short of fantastic, and EOG has been saying this over and over again in their reports to shareholders. What is pulled out after the 6 months is over less royalties and the cost of running and maintaining the pump goes straight to EOG's bottom line.

With oil around $90 a bbl, the economic incentive for EOG and others to experiment with new technologies to up the recovery rate on each section is huge. EOG seems pretty confident that there is 9 million bbl of oil under each section in the Parshall/Austin field, and that this first round of wells using the laterals, fracturing etc, is going to bring about 8 % of that to market. But if there is any way to pull more of the total 9 million bbls of oil out, the economic incentive to find that technology given what has already happened is huge. No doubt, 5 years from now EOG and others drilling the field will have further honed their techniques. EOG isn't going to walk away from a field that has been treating them this way from a purely capital budgeting standpoint. The only part of the puzzle I havent quite figured out is why the majors have not already landed. EOG is a big company, in the S&P 500, but small by the standards of a major oil company.

Does anyone have a number to toss out with respect to how much gas a typical well in the Parshall/Austin field might produce once the pipeline is in and the gas gets old rather than flared off? I have been guessing that the value of the gas might be 10-15% of the value of the crude oil produced each month, but this is only an uneducated hunch on my part.

I think the Feb-March date EOG is talking about corresponds to the date that the wells will be connected to the crude pipeline as well. At the moment the number of trucks needed just to haul off the oil from the 22 wells producing 500 bopd has been substantial--things should get a lot simpler with the pipeline in place.

How many barrels do each of those storage tanks hold? There are typically 8 or 9 set up on each well in the field. EOG is confident enough that the wells will come in that they set the tanks just as the wells are being started. [typically 400 bbls for the permanent tanks on location]

Here are some production histories from the Patten and Bartelson wells and projection for the infill well on the 1280.


And an earlier projection of production for the Warberg 1-25H well that indicates an EUR of about 400K bbls.


Another reader, Larry, sent along a graph plotting EOG's drilling permits and active rigs, indicating more rigs are likely to appear in the near future.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Some Austin Well Info, Mountrail Co.

Regarding temporary spacing for their Austin 1-02H well, sec. 2, 154N, 90W, Mountrail Co., EOG indicated that the well last month was averaging 800-some bopd, and that they have been fracing their wells before producing them and are utilizing a liner and swell packers in their completions. They are projecting an EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) of about 750K bbls over the life of the well, and estimated the mid-Bakken’s porosity to be about 7% (pretty good for the Bakken) and attributed about one-half percent porosity to fracturing. They said the reservoir properties are similar to those at the main area of development in Parshall field to the south. The company stated that they expected gas sales from the Parshall field area to begin around February or March of next year.

Speaking of EURs, from recent articles in the media it seems that some people are still claiming that billions of bbls are possibly going to be recovered from the Bakken. Those figures are derived from what seems to be a “let’s pull a number out of the hat” recovery percentage of the 400-some billion bbl estimate of oil in place from Price’s non-peer reviewed Bakken study. Specifically, they are indicating a recovery factor of 1-3 percent of the oil in place, which would result in 4-12 billion bbls of Bakken production.

There is nothing wrong with being optimistic, but is such an estimate realistic? Keep in mind that there will be no EUR from every section of land that is not going to be drilled, which at this point appears to be no small amount in a lot of the relevant counties, and which the estimates quoted in the media appear to totally ignore. Then too it is important to recognize that recovery of a billion bbls would require 2,000 wells that each have a EUR of 500K bbls. Consequently, 8,000 such wells would be needed to meet the lowest estimated EUR of four billion barrels. I invite anybody who is throwing out these estimates to forgo giving unsupportable broad brush estimates that lack specifics and explain where these 8K wells will be drilled, and whether an average EUR of 500K per well is realistic considering that many companies outside of the Parshall area are using EURs of around 300K per 1280 acre unit.

Saturday, December 8, 2007

In The News

The Minot Daily News has a fairly good article mainly about the recent BLM lease sale. The only issue I have is including a map of the entire area where the Bakken is present. The only relevant area of the Bakken, however, is where the formation is deep enough so that heat and pressure caused hydrocarbon generation from the shales. Continental has a good map of that area, although pushing into Stark Co. quite so far is a little aggressive in my opinion.

Then the Missoulian
has an article that mainly tracks the Wall Street Journal article a few years back about Richard Findley. One glaring error is it's statement that "[i]t was Findley's idea to drill a well sideways - a technique called 'horizontal drilling.'" While Findley may have initiated the use of horizontal drilling in the middle Bakken, the drilling technique was used elsewhere in the world before it was ever used in the Bakken, and in any event, it was utilized in the upper Bakken shale in the late 80s and early 90s in ND. They should have confirmed that with Canadian Hunter Expl., as its now defunk subsidiary, American Hunter, lost about $50 million in that little adventure.

Monday, December 3, 2007

Recent Parshall Completions

Some recently released EOG well completion rates in the Parshall Field area:

Ralph 1-32H, sec 32, 153-89, 1,329 bopd,
53k bbls cummulative from Aug. to Oct.

Florence 1-04H, sec. 4, 152-90, 1,015 bopd,
61k bbls July to Oct.

Geving 1-09H, sec. 9, 152-90, 895 bopd,
39k bbls Aug. to Oct.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Do I Hear $20k An Acre?

Well, it seems that the money from $90 oil has to go somewhere and quite a bit of it, $5.28 million to be precise, went from Sinclair Oil to the federal government at the BLM lease sale today for a 320 acre tract in Mountrail Co. That's a $16,500/acre bonus. This kind of stuff isn't sustainable, if you ask me (and nobody has by the way).

Based on this, I suppose the company is offering private mineral owners, what, about $10K/acre? Actually, probably more a like a couple hundred dollars.

Be sure to see the comments left by Larry and roccojoco for some useful information.

(The article has confusing language so that it may seem like it is referring to a purchase of the mineral rights, but it was a lease and not a purchase).

KTVQ in Billings

and

Minot Daily News (changed from Grand Forks Herald as the link went dead).

Monday, November 26, 2007

What Goes Up . . . .

Findley predicts Montana's Bakken boom is "cooling down" (although I thought Elm Coulee Field production was already in decline for the past year or so).

KTVQ in Billings

Kodiak O&G Picking Up Leases, Dunn Co.

Kodiak O&G from Denver states that it is continuing to pick up leases in Dunn Co., and plans to spud its first well with an unnamed joint partner early next year.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Petro-Hunt's Unconventional Hidden Gem At Charlson

With all the bluster over the exceptional wells in the Parshall area, it's easy to overlook what appears to be the best long-term Bakken producer in the state, the Petro-Hunt LLC USA 2D-3-1H well in Charlson Field about 25 miles west of the Parshall area activity. This well has consistently flowed over 20K bbls/month (presumably still on a choke) since going on line in October of '06 from the fractured Sanish siltstone in the extreme upper portion of the Three Forks Formation just below the lower Bakken Shale. This past Sept. the well again produced 20,666 bbls, 26 mmcfg and only four bbls of water during 30 days of production. Total production since Oct. of '06 has been 270K bbls, 331 mmcfg and 143 bbls of water.

In late July, Petro-Hunt completed an extension in the section to the south, the USA 11B-2-2H, sec. 11, 153N-95W, which appears to be another excellent well. The well had an IP flowing rate of 700 bopd, 850 mcfgd, and no water. From late July through September it produced 44K bbls, 45 mmcfg, and 34 bbls water.

This summer, the company also redrilled
a well in sec. 14 after a fish was left in the first hole that was drilled at the same location. During the drilling of the first well, the rig took a pretty good gas kick, but was brought under control. This well has not yet been officially completed. Petro-Hunt is currently drilling an east offset in sec. 12, and the company definitely has a nice little (or maybe big) sweet spot in this area.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Brigham And Whiting Updates, Mountrail Co.

Brigham Exploration has one well currently drilling and is planning to spud two more:










Whiting Pet. knows that the best way to impress investors is to use lots of pictures. Yes!! They are proud of their Perry-State well, and rightfully so.














And a picture from an American O&G well in Wyoming (note it's in WY, not ND) that I'm throwing in just because I like it.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

State Lease Sale Results

I doubt if anyone thinks there were any surprises at the state auction today. The top bid, and only one over $1K/acre, went to Northern Oil for 80 acres in sec. 8, 152N, 91W, Mountrail Co., where they paid $2,150/acre. Three other tracts in the same general area went for $500-600, which were the only other tracts available in the county. The area is about six miles west/southwest of current activity in Parshall Field, and Slawson has several wells planned in the immediate area.

Other highlights include Ward Co. with bids generally ranging in the $200-300 range in the overall area of T.152-156, R.85-87. The high bid in the county was $380 and went to Cody Oil.

Acreage in McLean Co, in the overall area of T.148-150, R.87-90, went for about $150-500, with the high bid of $570.

Dunn Co had a number of tracts in the east central part of the county in the general area of T.144-145, R.91-92, that for the most part were in the $350 range. The high bids in the county were for some isolated Missouri River tracts in T.149, R.92, that went for $575/acre.

Monday, November 5, 2007

Boom In The News

The Grand Forks Herald has been running a huge series of articles about the "boom", including one about the mineral owners around Parshall ("A neighbor whose well came in earlier received a check for $570,000, his share after four months of production, Geving said.").
grandforkshearld.com

And the inevitable article about how many billions of bbls are in the ground.
grandforkshearld.com

These links may not work as you may need to register to read the articles, but it's worth it. Just look for a series called "Boom Times."