Regarding temporary spacing for their Austin 1-02H well, sec. 2, 154N, 90W, Mountrail Co., EOG indicated that the well last month was averaging 800-some bopd, and that they have been fracing their wells before producing them and are utilizing a liner and swell packers in their completions. They are projecting an EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) of about 750K bbls over the life of the well, and estimated the mid-Bakken’s porosity to be about 7% (pretty good for the Bakken) and attributed about one-half percent porosity to fracturing. They said the reservoir properties are similar to those at the main area of development in Parshall field to the south. The company stated that they expected gas sales from the Parshall field area to begin around February or March of next year.
Speaking of EURs, from recent articles in the media it seems that some people are still claiming that billions of bbls are possibly going to be recovered from the Bakken. Those figures are derived from what seems to be a “let’s pull a number out of the hat” recovery percentage of the 400-some billion bbl estimate of oil in place from Price’s non-peer reviewed Bakken study. Specifically, they are indicating a recovery factor of 1-3 percent of the oil in place, which would result in 4-12 billion bbls of Bakken production.
There is nothing wrong with being optimistic, but is such an estimate realistic? Keep in mind that there will be no EUR from every section of land that is not going to be drilled, which at this point appears to be no small amount in a lot of the relevant counties, and which the estimates quoted in the media appear to totally ignore. Then too it is important to recognize that recovery of a billion bbls would require 2,000 wells that each have a EUR of 500K bbls. Consequently, 8,000 such wells would be needed to meet the lowest estimated EUR of four billion barrels. I invite anybody who is throwing out these estimates to forgo giving unsupportable broad brush estimates that lack specifics and explain where these 8K wells will be drilled, and whether an average EUR of 500K per well is realistic considering that many companies outside of the Parshall area are using EURs of around 300K per 1280 acre unit.